2:45 Ayr Tips

Most of these are very moderate and pretty much fully exposed. The exception is Carmel Valley, a three-year-old filly with not many miles on the clock. She came to Katie Scott from Ireland earlier in the season and has raced three times at Ayr since joining her new yard. She has definitely shown promise in her last two races, the most recent against fairly reliable yardsticks. She drops a pound in the ratings following that run, and with today's race at a lower level, she could be the one. Jason Hart rode her last time, and that experience will help him know how to get any improvement from her.

Winning jockey back in the saddle with this 3-year-old horse. Gained his 1st win and excellent 3rd in his next race. From 2 runs: win/3rd. Seems to be riding this horse very well.

Novak's form is fairly decent, and his handicap mark is easing. The drop back into a Class 6 is a positive for me. He finished fourth of nine at Ayr over 1 mile on his latest start, beaten about 4 lengths after being hampered, but is now 2 lb lower and nearing his last winning mark also.

He does not appear to be a likely winner, but a successful refitting of his visor could change the game. His drop to Class 6 and an OR of 59 makes him a threat, so place chances remain at 22/1.